Natural Gas Futures & Options Expiry

Natural gas expiry refers to the specific date when the futures or options contract between the buyer and seller (at a specific price) for the commodity expires. Here is a guide to the same below. 

What is Natural Gas Futures & Options Expiry?

The expiry of natural gas futures and options contracts refers to the particular date when these agreements between buyers and sellers (at predetermined prices) expire. Natural gas futures contracts expire three business days before the first calendar day of the delivery month. Traders may enter or exit their positions any time before one day prior to the date of expiry in the physically delivered contract. 

Natural gas options contracts are agreements giving buyers the right, minus the obligation, to buy or sell a particular quantity of the commodity at a predetermined price on or before the expiration date. They are derivatives, i.e. instruments whose value derives from the underlying natural gas market. The options expiry indicates the date when the contract is no longer valid and cannot be traded anymore. 

On this date, any outstanding ITM or in-the-money options contracts are settled, usually through devolving into an equivalent futures contract. If the option is not closed before expiry, it may necessitate the physical delivery of natural gas, which is impractical for a large number of traders. In this context, there is the choice of a rollover in commodity contracts. Traders may use this route to roll over positions by closing their current contracts and opening new ones with later dates of expiry. 

Natural Gas Futures Expiry 2025 

Here is the list of the MCX natural gas futures expiry for 2025 (1,250 MMBtu) -

Natural Gas Options Expiry 2025

Here is the list of the MCX natural gas options expiry for 2025 -

Factors That Can Affect Natural Gas Prices at Expiry

Several factors influence natural gas prices at expiry. These include: 

• Demand & Supply
  

  Natural gas prices are significantly influenced by demand and supply dynamics. Higher demand relative to supply leads to higher prices. On the other hand, a higher supply relative to demand leads to lower prices. 

• Weather Conditions
  

  Extreme weather conditions like scorching summers or chilly winters may impact demand. Cold weather requires heating, while hot conditions necessitate cooling. This affects natural gas consumption by power plants. 

• Storage Levels
  

  The stored amount of natural gas may also impact prices. Higher storage levels may indicate oversupply and lead to lower prices. At the same time, lower storage levels may indicate scarcity and push prices higher. 

• Economic Scenario
  

  A robust economy usually generates higher industrial activity and demand for natural gas. On the flipside, economic downturns may lead to lower demand for the commodity. 

• Global Developments
  

  Trade policies, geopolitical events, and international relations may also affect natural gas prices. For instance, any supply disruption from a major producing country or changes in import/export policies may affect the demand and supply balance. 

• Prices of Other Fuels
  

  In case prices increase for alternative fuels like coal and oil, demand for natural gas may go up, thereby impacting the prices of the commodity. 

• Speculation
  

  Speculative trading may also have an impact, particularly around the time of contract expiry. Traders may forecast future price movements based on their expectations, which can lead to increased volatility in prices. 

• Liquidity
  

  The open interest (number of outstanding contracts) level near the expiry date may also affect price volatility. Lower liquidity may lead to greater price fluctuations. 

• Currency Fluctuations
  

  Changes in exchange rates may also impact prices, particularly for natural gas that is globally traded. 

• Infrastructure & Production
  

  Production level changes, storage infrastructure, pipeline capacity, etc., may impact natural gas supply. This subsequently affects the commodity prices in turn.