Technical analysis is based only on stock price or volume data. The objective is not to predict the future, but to identify the most likely scenarios. Price action is used as an indication of how market participants have acted in the past and how they may act in the future. Technical analysts use chart patterns and trends, support and resistance levels, and price and volume behavior to identify trading opportunities with positive expectancy. Technical analysis does not consider the underlying business or the economics that affect the value of a company.
The difference between the two approaches comes down to what determines a stock’s value and price. Fundamental analysis considers the value of the company. This ultimately depends on the value of its assets and the profits it can generate. Fundamental analysts are concerned with the difference between a stock’s value, and the price at which it is trading. Technical analysis is concerned with price action, which gives clues as to the stock’s supply and demand dynamics – which is what ultimately determines the stock price. Patterns often repeat themselves because investors often behave in the same way in the same situation. Technical analysis is concerned with price and volume data alone.
Trends can move in three directions—up, down, and sideways. If you study prices over a long period of time, you will be able to see all three types of trends on the same chart. The slope of a trend indicates how much the price should move each day. Steep lines, moving either upward or downward, indicate a certain trend. The amount of time determines the validity of a trend. Generally, monthly time series carry greater importance than weekly prices, which supersede daily prices. Support is something that prevents the price from falling further. The support level is a price point on the chart where the trader expects maximum demand (in terms of buying) coming into the stock/index. Whenever the price falls to the support line, it is likely to bounce back. The support level is always below the current market price. A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is a price point (ceiling) at which the stock price is not expected to rise any higher. This is a price point at which there are more sellers than buyers in the market for the particular stock.
The technical analysis time frames shown on charts range from one minute to monthly, or even yearly, time spans. Popular time frames that technical analysts most frequently examine include:
The time frame a trader selects to study is typically determined by that individual trader’s personal trading style. Intra-day traders, traders who open and close trading positions within a single trading day, favor analyzing price movement on shorter time frame charts, such as the 5-minute or 15-minute charts. Long-term traders who hold market positions overnight and for long periods of time are more inclined to analyze markets using hourly, 4-hour, daily, or even weekly charts. Price movement that occurs within a 15-minute time span may be very significant for an intraday trader who is looking for an opportunity to realize a profit from price fluctuations occurring during one trading day. However, that same price movement viewed on a daily or weekly chart may not be particularly significant or indicative for long-term trading purposes.