Rupee Opens Flat at ₹85.48 Against the US Dollar Ahead of June Close

The Indian rupee began the week on a steady note, opening at ₹85.48 against the US dollar on June 30, 2025, reflecting a gain of just 1 paise compared to the previous session. The muted start comes after the currency posted its best weekly performance since January 2023, buoyed by a sharp decline in global crude oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions in West Asia. The rupee’s flat trajectory signals cautious optimism as market participants await further cues ahead of the month’s close.

Dollar Weakness and Oil Price Retreat Underpin Rupee

The US dollar index continued to trade near multi-month lows, while Brent crude oil prices remained subdued, supporting the rupee’s stability. The dollar index was marginally lower at $97.25, reflecting diminished safe-haven demand following the Iran-Israel ceasefire. Brent crude slipped to around $67.72 per barrel, driven by expectations of increased OPEC+ supply in August and reduced geopolitical risk premiums. Lower oil prices are particularly favourable for India, as they reduce the country’s import bill and support the current account outlook.

June Performance: Rupee Among Weakest in Asia

Despite the recent rally, the rupee is set to end June with only a modest appreciation of around 0.14%, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies this month. The currency’s muted monthly performance contrasts with its strong weekly gains, underscoring the impact of volatile global flows and domestic dollar demand. The rupee had surged to ₹86.47 on Friday, following the successful completion of the HDB Financial Services IPO, which was oversubscribed 17 times. However, analysts caution that upcoming outflows related to corporate acquisitions and IPO allotments could exert pressure.

Corporate Flows and Market Sentiment

Market participants are closely monitoring potential outflows, including those linked to JSW Paints’ acquisition of Akzo Nobel India and the allotment process for the HDB Financial Services IPO. These transactions could introduce volatility in the currency market, especially as the month draws to a close. Nonetheless, the overall sentiment remains positive, supported by robust foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows and strength in domestic equity markets.

RBI’s Role in Currency Stability

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to play a pivotal role in managing currency volatility. The central bank has been active in the foreign exchange market, buying dollars at key levels to prevent excessive appreciation and maintaining orderly conditions. Traders expect the RBI to maintain this calibrated approach, balancing the need for currency stability with the objective of preserving adequate forex reserves.

Conclusion: Stable Ground Ahead of Month-End

The Indian rupee opened flat at ₹85.48 against the US dollar, reflecting a cautious market stance after a strong weekly rally. Weakness in the dollar and lower oil prices continue to underpin the currency, while potential outflows from corporate deals and IPO allotments pose short-term risks. The RBI’s active presence in the forex market ensures stability, setting the stage for a measured end to June’s trading activity. Market participants remain alert to global and domestic developments as they navigate the final days of the month.

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