Trent Stocks Slumps 18%, Worst One‑Day Fall Since Last Year

Tata group's retail arm Trent Ltd saw its stock fall sharply on Monday, April 7 recording its steepest single day fall in ten months. The stock sank as much as 18% in early trade to become the top loser on the benchmark Nifty 50 index. This fall from grace saw Trent lose more than ₹30,000 crore in terms of market capitalisation.

The sharp correction followed the company’s March quarter business update that appears to have triggered bearish commentary from analysts. Although Trent's top line showed a 28% year-on-year growth during Q4, and 39% for the full fiscal year, these numbers reportedly were below market forecasts.

Goldman Sachs, a foreign brokerage firm, responded to the update with a reduction of its price target on Trent to ₹6,760 from ₹7,500 on account of the sales growth being weaker than expected. Morgan Stanley similarly said Trent's fourth-quarter top-line growth was below their estimates. Standalone gross revenue for the quarter at Trent, however, was ₹4,334 crore, less than Morgan Stanley's estimate of 35% growth in net revenue. Trent's gross standalone revenue growth number for the entire fiscal year 2025 stood at 39% YoY, a tad under the brokerage's estimate of 42%.

Analysts remarked that although Trent sales ordinarily see a seasonally-induced decline in the fourth quarter, this year's 9.7% quarter-on-quarter drop was especially steep, suggesting that either demand was softening or that discounts were also being used aggressively to clear stock. There were also worries about a slowdown in like-for-like sales growth, which had already shown some signs of slowing in the previous third quarter. This slowdown is seen by some analysts as a potential drag on Trent's future prospects.

The market reaction had Trent's share price cut its lower circuit limit to decline about 18% to a near one-year low of ₹4,570. The stock is also now below its 30-Day Moving Average (DMA). Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also down. The one-day slump brings Trent shares' losing streak to three days. The stock has now corrected over 46% from it's all-time high of ₹8,345 in October 2024, and is down 35% in 2025 year to date.

While the stock's performance shows the market is concerned and analysts are wary of the chain, the majority of those who have written about Trent still have a long-term positive stance. Of the 24 analysts that cover the stock, 17 have a 'Buy' rating, three have a 'Hold' recommendation and four have a 'Sell' rating. Still, the average 12-month analysts' consensus price target implies an upside potential.

Trent’s share price getting hit badly impacted the market capitalisation of the Tatas, but there was a much bigger market decline going on. Monday’s loss saw Trent and six Nifty 50 constituents from the group lose more than ₹1 lakh crore in combined market value. Volume of shares traded in Trent was also significantly above its 30-day average, indicating heightened investor activity.

Even though the initial market response to Trent's business update for Q4 has been severely negative, the split in analyst views indicates that the longer-term investment case for the retail titan is still very much being assessed. The next few quarters will determine whether concerns about sales growth deceleration will linger in a way that meaningfully alters the company’s overall trajectory.

Disclaimer: This news is solely for educational purposes. The securities/investments quoted here are not recommendatory.

To read the RA disclaimer, please click here