BPCL Shares Climb on Strong Q4 Performance and Analyst Upgrades
Shares of state-run oil marketing company, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), climbed significantly in Monday's trade, with the stock surging 6 per cent. The increase came as a robust gross refining margin (GRM) reportedly drove a significant earnings beat in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 (Q4FY25). During intra-day trade, BPCL shares traded with gains of over 4 per cent at ₹324.1, scaling a day's high of ₹325.9 apiece on the BSE. The share is currently trading at an increase of 3.58% at ₹322.40.
Robust Q4 Performance Highlights
While standalone EBITDA and profit saw decline of 15 percent and 18 percent year-on-year respectively, the robust performance relative to expectations was attributed to a reported GRM of $9.2 per barrel, significantly exceeding an expectation of $6 per barrel. BPCL delivered a 46 per cent beat on EBITDA in 4QFY25, driven by higher-than-estimated GRM and marketing margins. The implied marketing margin was also higher, recorded at ₹6.3 per kg, supported by higher other product margins. Furthermore, LPG loss was contained, increasing by only 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter to ₹3,200 crore despite higher international prices. Despite BPCL booking an exceptional loss of ₹1,770 crore due to the impairment of investment in BPRL, adjusted PAT was 71 percent.
Earnings Upgrades Reflect Positive Q4 Momentum
Following strong Q4 results, analysts have revised BPCL's earnings outlook and target prices upward. One brokerage raised its FY26–27 EBITDA estimates by 2%, citing higher refining throughput, reduced net debt, potential LPG compensation, and lower crude price assumptions. The stock was retained with a 'Buy' rating and a revised target of ₹445. Another firm increased its March 2026 target price by 7% to ₹400 but maintained a 'Neutral' stance, preferring HPCL over BPCL. It noted BPCL’s valuation at 1.5x one-year forward book value, below its 10-year average of 1.8x.
Broader Market Context: Falling Crude Prices
The gains seen in OMC shares, including BPCL, on Monday are also linked to a sharp fall in crude oil prices. Crude prices touched their lowest level since January 2021. The decline is primarily attributed to oversupply concerns following the OPEC+ group of oil producers approving an increase in crude output. OPEC+ members announced a 411,000 barrel per day increase in output. Brent crude futures dropped to $59.25 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56.19 a barrel. The decline in oil prices is viewed positively for the Indian economy, given its significant oil import requirement, and is also expected to potentially strengthen the domestic currency, the rupee, which opened at ₹84.18 per US dollar today.
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