Indian Benchmarks Extend Gains Amid Positive Global Cues and Inflows, Sensex closes 295 points higher, Nifty 114.45 points higher

Indian equity markets closed higher on Monday, with benchmarks extending their winning streak to the longest period so far in 2025. The Sensex settled 294.85 points higher at 80,796.84, while the Nifty closed 114.45 points above the 24,450 mark at 24,461.15. This positive momentum was buoyed by easing global trade tensions and a sustained inflow of foreign capital. Sectorally, ten out of the thirteen major sectors posted gains, supported by rises in the broader small and mid-cap indices. Notably, FMCG (1.22%), auto (1.85%), metal (0.96%), and oil & gas (1.70%) stocks traded in the green.

Key Drivers and Foreign Capital

Market sentiment was significantly boosted by the continued presence of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who extended their buying spree for the 12th consecutive session on Friday, marking their longest such streak in two years. This foreign interest is visible in various segments, with FIIs increasing stakes in over 400 smallcap companies last quarter. The Government of Singapore, a notable investor, holds stakes worth ₹2.38 lakh crore in 61 BSE-listed Indian companies, nine of which have seen an increase of 15-30% this calendar year. However, foreign investors seeking to acquire small stakes via off-market deals are reportedly facing regulatory hurdles from banks.

Adding to the positive sentiment, optimism surrounding a potential India-U.S. trade deal grew. BlackRock highlighted India's market position strengthening due to strategic geopolitical alignment and global partnerships. Furthermore, a drop in oil prices, following the OPEC+ agreement to increase production, is seen as a benefit to the Indian economy, potentially creating policy space for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The Rupee also benefited from falling oil prices, ending 0.4% higher at 84.25/USD. It opened stronger at 84.18 against the dollar and is expected to maintain a mildly positive tone this week, influenced by the upcoming US Fed decision, trade deal progress, and cross-border tensions.

Company Performance Highlights

Individual stocks witnessed varied movements based on earnings and news flow. Adani Enterprises increased 7.44%, and Trent gained 4.51%. Adani Ports shares rallied 6.27% after robust Q4 results and April cargo data. Marico shares jumped 4.10% after an 8% rise in Q4 profit and 20% revenue growth. R R Kabel shares zoomed 13.12% following a 64% YoY jump in Q4 profit and plans for capacity expansion. Netweb Technologies shares rose over 14% driven by a 45% Q4 profit increase attributed to AI-led growth. ICICI Bank and Godfrey Phillips were among stocks hitting 52-week highs.

Conversely, several banking stocks saw declines post-earnings. Kotak Mahindra Bank shares slipped 4.59% after reporting a 14% YoY drop in Q4 standalone net profit, attributed to a larger-than-expected fall in quarterly profit driven by increased provisions. Kotak's CEO also noted persistent pain in the microfinance sector, despite moderation in personal loan and credit card stress. State Bank of India (SBI) shares dropped 1.18% after reporting a 10% YoY drop in Q4 net profit. Some PSU banks have seen significant declines this year, with some falling up to 40%. CDSL shares also dropped over 1.29% after a 22% fall in Q4 profit. DMart shares declined 1.04% after a subdued Q4 performance led brokerages to trim target prices.

Broader Market and Outlook

Beyond equities, India saw the debut listing of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), with LIC Housing raising ₹10 billion. The 10-year Indian bond yield fell in April and is expected to ease further in May, supported by RBI's stance, lower inflation, and FPI inflows. Gold loans emerged as the fastest-growing segment in retail credit for FY25, doubling over the past year.

Despite the positive domestic cues, global markets showed caution ahead of major economic updates. S&P 500 futures and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 saw slight declines, while European shares edged lower as investors awaited US-China trade updates and the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week.

Current Market Update

• The Sensex is trading at 80,741.55 up by 239.55 points or 0.31%.
• The NSE Nifty 50 is trading at 24,443.25 up by 94.70 points or 0.39%.

Top 5 gainers in the market:

1. Adani Enterprises (ADANIENT)

• • Opening Price: ₹2,312.60
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹2,428.00
    
  • % Change: +5.83%
    Shares of Adani Ports increased amid positive sentiment surrounding the Adani Group, including various legal developments. Additionally, the company's strong operational performance and in-line quarterly earnings contributed to investor confidence.

2. Adani Ports (ADANIPORTS)

• • Opening Price: ₹1,290.00
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹1,336.00
    
  • % Change: +5.44%
    This positive momentum is attributed to a series of favourable developments, including strong operational performance and recent in-line quarterly earnings reports from the conglomerate.

3. Trent

• • Opening Price: ₹5,175.00
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹5,343.00
    
  • % Change: +3.79%
•           The company's share price is rising on the back of strong Q4 results, better than expected standalone profit, which have boosted investor sentiment. The stock is trading above key                short-term moving averages, supported by sustained market optimism, as the Sensex has maintained an upward trend over the past three weeks.

4. Shriram Finance (SHRIRAMFIN)

• • Opening Price: ₹610.15
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹623.40
  • % Change: +3.18%
    Shriram Finance's stock appreciated due to the company's plans to raise funds, which are expected to support its growth initiatives. The positive outlook for India's non-banking financial sector also contributed to the stock's upward movement.

5. Bajaj Finserv (BAJAJFINSV)

• • Opening Price: ₹1,964.90
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹2,010.90
    
  • % Change: +2.70%
    The company’s positive q4 results have ignited investor confidence and hence the increase in the share price.The company’s PAT increased by 14%.

Top 5 losers in the market:

1. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTAKBANK)

• • Opening Price: ₹2,105.10
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹2,072.40
    
  • % Change: –5.16%
    Kotak Mahindra Bank's shares fell over 5% following a disappointing Q4 FY25 performance. The bank reported a 14% year-on-year decline in net profit, attributed to higher provisions and margin compression. This led to several brokerages downgrading the stock due to concerns over valuation and near-term growth prospects.

2. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (DRREDDY)

• • Opening Price: ₹1,188.70
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹1,160.40
    
  • % Change: –1.90%
    Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories is facing a decline due to Tariff Reprieve for Pharma Companies in near future, as hinted by US President Donald Trump. It is uncertain and therefore the changes in the share price.

3. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)

• • Opening Price: ₹240.00
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹239.12
    
  • % Change: –1.77%
    ONGC's shares dipped as Brent crude prices fell by 21% in 2025, impacting revenue prospects for oil exploration companies. Additionally, the stock breached key technical support levels, triggering further selling pressure.

4. State Bank of India (SBIN)

• • Opening Price: ₹782.00
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹788.90
    
  • % Change: –1.39%
    SBI's stock declined following the release of its Q4 FY25 results, which showed a 10% year-on-year drop in net profit. The decline was due to higher provisions and margin compression, leading to a negative market reaction.

5. JSW Steel (JSWSTEEL)

• • Opening Price: ₹959.80
    
  • Current Market Price (LTP): ₹964.60
    
  • % Change: –0.88%
    JSW Steel's shares experienced a decline after the Supreme Court rejected its ₹19,350 crore bid to acquire Bhushan Power and Steel Ltd., ordering the liquidation of the company instead. This legal setback raised concerns about JSW Steel's growth strategy and impacted investor confidence.

Indian equities are expected to remain range-bound on Monday, weighed down by persistent global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. As of 9:02 AM, Gifty Nifty signaled a flat opening (-0.07%), reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Factors Influencing Market Sentiment

• Traders continue to assess the broader implications of tariffs on US imports and escalating tensions between India and Pakistan following the recent attack in Pahalgam. Market sentiment is also being shaped by mixed global cues and renewed foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows.

In the US, stock futures slipped in early Asian trade, with Dow Jones futures down 0.5% at 41,111. This comes after Wall Street ended Friday on a strong note, with the S&P 500 logging its longest winning streak in over two decades, closing 1.47% higher at 5,686.68.

Global Backdrop:

• Dollar slips as traders await clarity on US-China trade talks

The US dollar edged lower in early trade on Monday, with market participants awaiting concrete developments in US-China trade negotiations following recent diplomatic signals.

Despite easing recession fears after a robust March jobs report, which reduced the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, the greenback struggled to maintain momentum. The strong labour data has shifted expectations toward a more hawkish Fed tone at this week’s policy meeting.

The dollar index was down 0.2% at 99.857. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1324, recovering from last week’s low of $1.1266. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slipped 0.2% to 144.63, easing from Friday’s high of 145.91.

• Gold Rate Today: Precious metals extended their decline, with both gold and silver falling to three-week lows. The downturn follows a stronger US dollar, revived hopes around US-China trade talks, and stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, which triggered profit-booking in bullion. 10g of 24 carat gold was priced at Rs 96,530 on Saturday 03, May 2025.
• Crude Oil: Crude oil prices declined sharply, with Brent crude futures falling 3.33% to $59.25 a barrel and WTI down 3.60% to $56.19. The drop comes ahead of expected output hikes by OPEC+.

The oil producers’ alliance surprised markets by reversing earlier output cuts and is now set to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June—marking a second consecutive month of higher supply.

The move comes at a time when global demand growth remains fragile, amplifying fears of a supply glut. Market sentiment has also been rattled by renewed trade tensions, as the US administration’s latest tariff measures reignite concerns over a potential global economic slowdown.

Earnings Watch: Key Q4 results scheduled for today across sectors

A broad mix of companies from diverse sectors are set to release their fourth-quarter and full-year FY24-25 earnings today. Among the prominent names on the docket are Mahindra & Mahindra, Coforge, Indian Hotels Company, and Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing.

Investors will also keep a close watch on quarterly numbers from CCL Products, Computer Age Management Services (CAMS), and Capri Global Capital.

Other firms slated to report include Ethos, Cigniti Technologies, Jammu & Kashmir Bank, Unicommerce Esolutions, Nureca, and Zee Media Corporation, making it a data-heavy session for earnings-driven trades.

Stocks to Watch: SBI, Ircon International, AU SFB, Azad Engineering

Ircon International has secured a ₹458.14 crore contract for civil construction works at the Tato-I Hydro Electric Project in Arunachal Pradesh.

AU Small Finance Bank is in focus as TRUE NORTH FUND V LLP, Indium IV (Mauritius) Holdings, and Silver Leaf Oak (Mauritius) plan to offload shares worth around ₹600 crore via block deals, according to media reports.

Azad Engineering has signed a long-term supply agreement with GE Steam Power GmbH (GE Vernova) for manufacturing advanced airfoils for nuclear, thermal, and industrial power applications.

State Bank of India (SBI) reported a 9.9% YoY decline in Q4FY25 net profit at ₹18,643 crore, impacted by higher provisions and the absence of a one-time gain. Sequentially, profit rose 10.4%. Full-year FY25 net profit stood at a record ₹70,901 crore, up 16.08% YoY.

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