Indian Markets Under Pressure Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Earnings Season
The market sentiment was impacted by a combination of weekly options expiry and India's confirmation of retaliating to Pakistan's military targeting attempts, which saw the Nifty fall nearly 200 points from its day's high. The Nifty 50 closed at 24,008, declining 265.80 points or -1.1%. The Sensex closed down by 880.34 points or -1.10% at 79,454.47.
Broader markets experienced even sharper declines initially, with the Nifty Midcap index declining by over 1,000 points at one stage. However, the Nifty Midcap 100 later managed to turn positive, overcoming its significant deficit. Despite this recovery attempt, the Nifty Midcap 100 index marked its second consecutive session of decline, having lost 0.97%. The Nifty Realty sector was particularly hard hit, falling by 2.38%, with major constituents like DLF, Prestige Estates, Oberoi Realty, and Sobha Realty witnessing declines.
Perspectives on Resilience and Opportunity
Amid market volatility, experts point to the underlying resilience of India’s economy, suggesting it remains well-positioned to navigate headwinds without significant downside risks. The medium-term investment outlook continues to favour India’s long-term growth narrative. Optimism persists around the financial sector, particularly banking, capital markets, and fintech, with expectations that key players could regain industry-leading growth and benefit from improving valuations.
A shift towards consumption has been observed over the past three months, with a broader recovery anticipated from the second half of the year, extending into the coming years. Investors are advised to remain invested with a focus on large-cap stocks trading at reasonable valuations and to consider defensive segments such as banking and defence. Stocks showing strength in the current environment are seen as better positioned to sustain performance over the medium to long term.
Key Stock and Sector Highlights
Earnings reactions were a significant theme for several stocks today.
Pidilite Industries reported a consolidated net profit increase of 40.5% year-on-year (YoY) in Q4, although. Revenue rose 8.2% YoY, also slightly below estimates. The company's shares rose marginally by 0.46%.
Britannia shares gained over 1.17% after reporting Q4 results where both net profit (₹559 crore) and revenue (₹4,432 crore) surpassed poll estimates.
In contrast, Asian Paints reacted to weaker-than-expected Q4 results, particularly in volume growth, though shares opened higher before the reaction.
Shyam Metalics shares dipped by over 1.35% following their Q4 results, which showed a 1% increase in net profit and a 14.8% rise in revenue YoY.
Kirloskar Ferrous reported robust Q4 results with a significant increase in net profit, alongside growth in revenue and EBITDA.
Mutual Fund Flows
Data released by AMFI showed record Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions in April 2025, reaching a high of ₹26,632 crore. However, net inflows into equity mutual funds moderated slightly, declining by 3.2% month-on-month to ₹24,253 crore. Despite the moderation in net equity inflows, the total Assets Under Management (AUM) increased to ₹70 lakh crore from ₹65.74 lakh crore month-on-month. Notably, between 95 lakh to 1 crore SIP accounts were closed during April. Large Cap fund inflows increased marginally month-on-month.
Sectorally, experts pointed towards chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and cement as standing out, especially if foreign institutional selling persists. Financials might also become attractive if offered at lower valuations.
Current Market Update
- The Sensex is trading at 79,623.22 down by -711.59 points or -0.89%.
- The NSE Nifty 50 is trading at 24,052.95 down by -220.50 points or -0.9%.
Top 5 Gainers in the Market:
Titan Company (TITAN)
- Opening Price: ₹3,367.00
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹3,496.10
- Percentage Change: +3.76%
Titan led the market rally, gaining 3.76%. The surge follows robust Q4 results, with the company reporting strong growth in its jewellery and watches divisions. Investor sentiment was further buoyed by positive management commentary on continued festive demand and market share gains.
Larsen & Toubro (LT)
- Opening Price: ₹3,331.00
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹3,446.40
- Percentage Change: +3.69%
L&T advanced 3.69% after a strong Q4FY25 performance. The company’s PAT jumped 25% YoY to ₹5497 crore. The positive result has increased investor sentiment.
Tata Motors (TATAMOTORS)
- Opening Price: ₹667.50
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹703.10
- Percentage Change: +2.97%
Tata Motors climbed 2.97%, driven by strong monthly vehicle sales and optimism over its electric vehicle strategy. The company’s robust domestic and export demand, along with positive analyst outlooks, have contributed to the rally.
Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL)
- Opening Price: ₹305.00
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹316.20
- Percentage Change: +2.95%
BEL rose 2.95% on the back of new defence contract wins and expectations of increased government spending in the defence sector. Recent brokerage reports highlighted BEL’s strong order pipeline and operational efficiency.
Hero MotoCorp (HEROMOTOCO)
- Opening Price: ₹3,735.00
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹3,883.00
- Percentage Change: +2.17%
Hero MotoCorp gained 2.17% following a double-digit rise in April sales and positive management guidance on premium motorcycle launches. The company’s focus on electric vehicles and rural market penetration has also boosted investor confidence.
Top 5 Losers in the Market:
Jio Financial Services (JIOFIN)
- Opening Price: ₹244.10
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹245.40
- Percentage Change: -2.41%
Jio Financial Services led the losses, falling 2.41%. The decline is attributed to recent concerns over margin pressures and higher provisioning for bad loans, as highlighted in the company’s latest quarterly update. Analysts have also cited cautious investor sentiment following muted growth in the lending segment.
Power Grid Corporation (POWERGRID)
- Opening Price: ₹300.00
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹301.30
- Percentage Change: -2.25%
Power Grid slipped 2.25% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly earnings. The company faced pressure from rising operational costs and subdued growth in transmission revenues.
ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK)
- Opening Price: ₹1,415.20
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹1,403.70
- Percentage Change: -2.22%
ICICI Bank declined 2.22% amid profit booking and concerns over rising non-performing assets in the retail loan segment. The banking sector broadly witnessed selling pressure following mixed cues from global markets.
UltraTech Cement (ULTRACEMCO)
- Opening Price: ₹11,480.00
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹11,381.00
- Percentage Change: -2.15%
UltraTech Cement fell 2.15% as the company reported weaker-than-expected quarterly volume growth. Rising input costs and a cautious outlook on infrastructure demand have also weighed on the stock.
- Opening Price: ₹334.20
- Current Market Price (LTP): ₹332.95
- Percentage Change: -2.07%
NTPC lost 2.07% after the company flagged concerns about rising fuel costs and regulatory uncertainties in the power sector. The stock also tracked broader weakness in energy shares.
Market Open
(09:15 GMT, May 9, 2025) Indian markets are in line for a deep decline today. GIFT Nifty is hinting at a big gap-down opening, trading lower by 219.50 points (0.91%) at 23,972 as of 07:18 AM IST, suggesting Dalal Street may open close to 200 points lower than Thursday's close. The volatility index, also commonly referred to as a fear gauge, has run above the 21 level.
Factors Influencing Market Sentiment
Wall Street's Rally Faces Headwinds Amid Tariff Concerns: Wall Street's recent rally, marked by a nine-day winning streak, the longest since 2004, has faced headwinds due to renewed tariff concerns. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both experienced declines after President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, including a 100% tariff on foreign-produced movies. Investors are now assessing the potential impact of these tariffs on the economy and corporate profits.
Progress in US-India Trade Deal Negotiation: The United States and India are making strides toward finalizing a bilateral trade agreement. President Trump has indicated that India will eliminate tariffs on US imports, aiming to boost bilateral trade from over $190 billion to $500 billion by 2030. Negotiations have included discussions on politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture, with both sides showing willingness to make concessions.
Global Context: While the domestic markets are under pressure, Asian markets have moved higher today. This comes on the heels of US President Donald Trump's reveal of a US-UK trade deal and portends possible reductions in tariffs against China, subject to successful talks. US stock indices also continued Thursday's gains after the news about the UK trade deal. The US dollar is set to have a weekly advance, aided by optimism regarding trade deals and weakening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cutting in the near term. Investor attention encompasses the next US-China trade talks scheduled for Saturday in Switzerland. Key currencies experienced mixed movements, with the euro declining 0.1% against the dollar, the Japanese yen declining 0.2% against the dollar, and the offshore yuan little changed.
Global Backdrop:
US Dollar Index (DXY): The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.08% to 100.7174, showing a slight bounce from lows in recent times. Despite this gain, the dollar is under pressure because of the sustained tensions in the geopolitical landscape and shifting trade dynamics.
Trading Economics
Gold Prices: Gold prices fell marginally, with spot prices at around $3,327 an ounce. The fall is due to profit-taking and a slightly firmer dollar. In India, 24-carat gold is available at around ₹97,980 for 10 grams, driven by global trends as well as local demand factors.
Goodreturns
Crude Oil: Crude prices witnessed a significant gain, led by hope for revived US-China trade talks. WTI crude futures advanced 3.2% to close at $59.90 a barrel and Brent crude futures at $63.06 a barrel. The attention of the market continues to be on possible developments from the imminent trade talks and how it may affect global demand.
Business Today
Stocks in Focus:
Larsen & Toubro (L&T): Reported net profit of ₹5497 crore, just higher than poll estimates of ₹5024 crore, while revenue at ₹74,392 crore was just lower than the poll of ₹77,745 crore. EBITDA at ₹8203 crore was also just lower than the poll of ₹8403 crore. L&T declared a final dividend of ₹34 per share.
Titan Company: Net profit stood at ₹870 crore, which was above the poll estimate of ₹837 crore, and revenue at ₹13,477 crore was above the poll of ₹13,055 crore. The current MD of Titan, CK Yenkataraman, will retire and is to be replaced by Jewellery division CEO Ajoy Chawla.
Britannia Industries: Posted consolidated net profit of ₹559.1 crore and revenue of ₹4,432.2 crore.
Union Bank of India: Reported standalone net profit of ₹4,984.9 crore, sharply higher year-over-year. The bank reported better asset quality with Gross NPA falling to 2.94% from 3.34% quarter-on-quarter and Net NPA reducing to 0.70% from 0.89% quarter-on-quarter.
Kalyan Jewellers: Witnessed net profit grow to ₹187.6 crore with revenue growing to ₹6181.5 crore year-on-year.
Mahindra and Mahindra Financial Services (M&M Fin): Approved a rights issue of 15.44 crore shares worth ₹2,996 crore at ₹194 per share. Shareholders will get 1 equity share for every 8 shares held.
Lupin: Got US FDA approval for its Raltegravir Tablets, employed in the treatment of HIV-1.
Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL): Received orders for developing two 50 MW wind farm projects in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Brigade Enterprises: Purchased an 11-acre land parcel in Bengaluru for a premium commercial project with a gross development value of over ₹2,000 crore.
One97 Communications (Paytm): Its CEO, Vijay Shekhar Sharma, and his brother Ajay Shekhar Sharma have resolved a case with the market regulator SEBI.
Infosys: Collaborated with Economist Impact to introduce 'The Sustainability Atlas', an AI-driven tool.
Promoter Ownership: Fell to an all-time low of 49.5% in India's top 500 firms in the March quarter.
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