Sensex Surges 677 Points to 81,796, Nifty Closes Above 24,900: Market Defies Middle East Tensions

Indian equity markets extended their upward momentum on June 16, 2025, with the BSE Sensex jumping 677.55 points, or 0.84%, to close at 81,796.15, while the Nifty 50 rose 227.90 points, or 0.92%, to end at 24,946.50. The strong gains came despite heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, which have rattled global markets and pushed up oil prices in recent sessions.

Sectoral Performance and Top Movers

All sectoral indices ended in positive territory, led by the Nifty IT index, which gained over 1.57%. Financials and technology stocks were among the top contributors to the rally, with TCS, L&T, HCLTech, and Bharti Airtel emerging as the biggest gainers on the Sensex. In contrast, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, and SBI were notable laggards but did little to dampen the overall bullish sentiment.

Broader markets, however, showed signs of fatigue. The Nifty MidCap 100 index inched up 0.1%, while the Nifty SmallCap 100 index was also up by 0.95%. This divergence suggests that while large-cap stocks continue to attract investor interest, mid- and small-cap counters are seeing selective profit-taking amid stretched valuations.

Geopolitical Tensions: Limited Impact on Indian Markets

The escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend triggered a surge in global oil prices, with Brent crude futures briefly rising above $76 per barrel before settling near $73.77. Despite these developments, Indian markets remained resilient, with investors largely pricing in a limited and contained conflict for now.

Commodities and Inflation Outlook

Gold prices in India hit a record high, with August contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) touching ₹1,01,708 per 10 grams, as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. However, the rally in gold was less pronounced than some had anticipated, with analysts pointing to limited economic spillover from the current conflict.

On the inflation front, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for May 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.39%, driven mainly by higher prices of manufactured food products, electricity, chemicals, and transport equipment. The WPI Food Index inflation moderated to 1.72% in May, down from 2.55% in April, indicating some relief on the food inflation front.

Market Sentiment and Investor Strategy

Despite the ongoing geopolitical risks, market sentiment in India remains buoyant. The Sensex and Nifty have rallied nearly 10% since early April, supported by strong domestic inflows and optimism around corporate earnings. However, analysts caution that the rally has eroded some valuation comfort, and further escalation in the Middle East could prompt a correction.

Sectors vulnerable to sustained high oil prices-such as oil marketing companies, auto manufacturers, and consumer staples-are being closely watched. Select pharmaceutical and chemical firms may also face margin pressures if raw material costs continue to rise.

Global Context and Regional Markets

Globally, US and European markets closed lower as investors reacted to the escalation in Middle East tensions and the jump in energy prices. However, Israel’s stock market remained resilient, with the benchmark TA-125 index rising 1% and nearing its record highs. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi posting moderate gains, while other indices were subdued as investors awaited key economic data from China.

Conclusion: Resilience Amid Uncertainty

Indian equity markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of heightened geopolitical risks, with the Sensex and Nifty continuing their upward trajectory. The combination of strong domestic fundamentals, robust institutional flows, and limited economic spillover from the Israel-Iran conflict has kept sentiment positive. However, investors are advised to remain vigilant, as any escalation that disrupts oil supplies or triggers a sustained spike in crude prices could quickly alter the risk-reward equation for Indian equities

Mid-Day Updates

Indian equity benchmarks rebounded strongly today, with the Nifty 50 trading 223.75 points or 0.91% higher at 24,942.90 and the Sensex trading 678.74 points or 0.84% higher at 81,801.59. The positive sentiment was driven by easing geopolitical tensions, strong cues from Asian markets, and renewed buying in heavyweights like HDFC Bank, Reliance, TCS, and Infosys. Sustained foreign institutional inflows also supported the rally.

While elevated crude oil prices and currency fluctuations remain concerns, the rupee’s relative firmness and broader macroeconomic stability offered some relief. Market participants are closely monitoring technical resistance near the 25,000 mark for Nifty and support around 24,300–24,500, with upcoming developments in global politics, U.S. Fed commentary, monsoon updates, and oil prices expected to influence the near-term direction.

Top 5 Gainers in the Market

ONGC 

• Opening Price: ₹253.99
• Current Price: ₹256.90
• Change: +2.14%

ONGC is seeing positive momentum today as escalating Israel-Iran tensions have driven crude oil prices higher, benefiting upstream producers like ONGC through improved realisations from crude sales.

SBI Life 

• Opening Price: ₹1762
• Current Price: ₹1792.80
• Change: +2.14%

SBI Life Insurance is attracting interest today as the stock approaches a key resistance level, supported by steady sector performance and positive recent returns, which is drawing buyers into the counter.

 TCS

• Opening Price: ₹3440
• Current Price: ₹ 2504.20
• Change: +1.70%

TCS generated positive sentiment today as robust client demand and recent large project announcements reinforced confidence in the company’s growth outlook, prompting renewed interest from market participants.

 Shriram Finance 

• Opening Price: ₹669
• Current Price: ₹ 678.30
• Change: +1.67%

Shriram Finance is drawing attention today as it trades near immediate resistance, with recent momentum supported by strong one-month and three-month returns, and the stock’s reasonable valuations compared to sector peers further fueling interest among market participants.

 Cipla

• Opening Price: ₹1501.90
• Current Price: ₹  1529.90
• Change: +1.64%

Cipla is attracting investor interest today after the company announced a final and special dividend, with the record date set for later this month, and recent quarterly results showing strong profit growth and improved margins, which has further boosted sentiment among market participants

Top 5 Losers in the Market

 Tata Motors 

• Opening Price: ₹711 
• Current Price: ₹ 684.80
• Change: -3.83%

Tata Motors is seeing selling pressure today after its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover flagged expectations of weak free cash flow and trimmed its margin guidance for FY26, citing macroeconomic risks, competitive headwinds in China, and concerns over US tariffs.

 Dr Reddy

• Opening Price: ₹1359.80 
• Current Price: ₹ 1351.50
• Change: -% 0.81

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories faced selling pressure today as the stock traded below its previous close amid cautious investor sentiment, despite recent strong quarterly earnings and steady revenue growth.

Sun Pharma 

• Opening Price: ₹1665
• Current Price: ₹ 1680.40
• Change: -%0.44

Sun Pharma faced selling pressure today after the US FDA issued eight observations for its Halol facility following a GMP inspection, raising regulatory concerns and prompting cautious sentiment among investors.

State Bank of India (SBIN) 

• Opening Price: ₹792.50
• Current Price: ₹ 789.95
• Change: -0.30%

State Bank of India faced selling pressure today as the stock continued its recent downward trend, trading near immediate support levels, with broader market sentiment favoring other sectors despite overall benchmark gains.

 Adani Ports 

• Opening Price: ₹1389 
• Current Price: ₹1404
• Change: -0.07%

Adani Ports encountered selling pressure today as global investors reacted to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices, both of which have contributed to cautious sentiment across the infrastructure and logistics sector.

The Indian equity benchmarks edged higher in early trade Monday, recovering from a muted open. 

The BSE Sensex rose 248.02 points (0.31%) to 81,366.62, after opening at 81,034.45. 

The Nifty 50 gained 68.80 points (0.28%) to 24,787.40. Despite signals from the Gift Nifty, which suggested a gap-down opening near 24,790, broader markets turned positive by 9:18 AM.

Global Markets Tumble as Geopolitical Concerns and Energy Prices Take a Toll on Sentiment

Asian markets opened mixed with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's Kospi seeing moderate gains, with the other indices subdued as investors weighed the continuing Middle East conflict and waited for China's key economic data. US markets closed down strongly yesterday, spooked by the Israel-Iran confrontation and jump in energy prices, which has also impacted European bourses such as the DAX and STOXX 50. US futures were trading lower, indicating ongoing worldwide risk aversion at the start of the week.

Overall, sentiment remains nervous. Investors are watching events in the geopolitical space closely, crude oil prices, and impending economic data releases for additional hints. Volatility should continue until there is additional clarity on the global political environment as well as the economic situation. 

Crude Oil Prices Surge on West Asia Conflict

Crude oil futures climbed in early trade following renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran over the weekend. As of 9:32 AM, Brent crude futures (August delivery) were trading at $74.88, up 0.88%, while WTI futures stood at $71.94, rising 0.91%. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), June crude contracts rose 0.84% to ₹6,338, and July contracts gained 0.73% to ₹6,206.

Currency Update | Rupee Slides Further

The Indian Rupee opened weaker, falling 10 paise to 86.18 against the US dollar, compared to Friday’s close of 85.08, as per Bloomberg data. The currency continues to face pressure from elevated oil prices and persistent outflows by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), particularly from debt markets. Weak foreign direct investment (FDI) trends and subdued equity market activity have further dampened sentiment. Other Asian currencies also declined, while the US Dollar Index was marginally higher at 98.33, up 0.15%.

Gold Inches Higher Amid Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices edged up on MCX, tracking increased safe-haven demand driven by Middle East tensions. August Gold futures rose 0.20% to ₹1,00,472 per 10 grams around 9:15 AM. 

However, gains remained capped due to a firmer dollar and soft physical demand ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision scheduled for June 18.

Stock To Focus

ITC completed its ₹400 crore acquisition of Sresta Natural Bioproducts, marking its entry into the organic food sector.

Godrej Properties to develop a premium housing project in Bengaluru with a revenue potential of ₹1,500 crore.

Birla Corporation emerged as the top bidder for a limestone block in Jaisalmer through Rajasthan’s e-auction.

Sun Pharma’s Halol facility received eight FDA observations; Kirti Ganorkar named MD from Sept 2025.

Syngene cleared USFDA GCP inspection with no observations and received EIR with a VAI outcome.

Natco Pharma’s Hyderabad API plant got a single procedural observation from the USFDA.

Adani Ports confirmed Haifa Port remains unaffected by Iran’s missile strike on Israel.

NTPC began operations of 660 MW Unit-3 at North Karanpura, raising total group capacity to 81,368 MW.

SpiceJet posted a record ₹319 crore net profit in Q4FY25, marking its first full-year profit since FY18.

Bajaj Finance shares go ex-bonus and ex-stock split on June 17, following a 4:1 bonus and face value split.

Vedanta will consider its first FY26 interim dividend on June 18, with a record date set for June 24.

Adani Green Energy topped NSE’s latest ESG ratings in the utilities sector and ranked top five overall.

Read More : Stocks to Watch Today, 16th June 2025

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