Discounted Cash Flow

Discounted cash flow or DCF is the method for estimating the current value of an investment by taking into account its future cash flows. It can be used to determine the estimated investment required to be made in order to receive predetermined returns. 

The discounted cash flow method is based on the concept of the time value of money, which says that the money that an individual has now is worth more than the same amount in the future.

Where can the Discounted Cash Flow Method be Used?

DCF can be used to estimate the valuation of –

• A business
• Real estate
• Stocks
• Bonds
• Long-term assets
• Equipment

What is the Formula for Calculating DCF?

The Discounted Cash Flow formula is as follows – 

DCF = [Cash flow for the 1st year / (1 + r)1] + [Cash flow for the 2nd year / (1 + r)2] + [Cash flow for the 3rd year / (1 + r)3] + .. + [Cash flow for the nth year / (1 + r)n]

In this formula – 

Example – 

Let’s assume that Mr Shankar plans to make an investment of Rs.1 Lakh in a business for a tenure of 5 years. The WACC of this business is 6%.

The estimated cash flows are mentioned below – 

Based on the formula –

DCF = [20,000 / (1 + 0.06)1] + [23,000 / (1 + 0.06)2] + [30,000 / (1 + 0.06)3] + [37,000 / (1 + 0.06)4] + [45,000 / (1 + 0.06)5] 

Therefore, the DCF for each year will be – 

The total discounted cash flow valuation will be Rs.1,27,460. When subtracted from the initial investment of Rs.1 Lakh, the net present value (NPV) will be Rs.27,460. As the NPV is a positive number, Mr Shankar’s investment in the businesses will be lucrative. 

However, if he had invested Rs.2 Lakh, he would have incurred a loss of Rs.72,540 as the NPV would have been negative. 

Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

It may so happen that investors have to calculate the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) before finding DCF.

In such cases, they can use the following formula – 

WACC = (E / V x Re) + [D / V x Rd x (1 - Tc)]

In this formula,

Example – 

Company ABC has shareholder equity of Rs.50 Lakh (E), and its long-term debt was Rs.10 Lakh (D) for the fiscal year 2019. Therefore, the total market value of ABC’s financing is Rs.60 Lakh (V = E + D).  

Now, let’s assume that the cost of equity (Re) and the cost of debt (Rd) of ABC is 6.6% and 6.4%, respectively. The rate of corporate tax is 15%.

Using the formula – 

WACC = (50 / 60 x 6.6%) + [10 / 60 x 6.4% x (1 + 15%)]

= 0.055 + (0.167 x 0.065 x 1.15)

= 0.055 + 0.012

= 0.067

Therefore, WACC = 6.7%, which shareholders of ABC are receiving on an average every year for financing its assets. 

What is the Terminal Value in DCF?

The terminal value in DCF analysis is the final causation at the end of the formula. It is the projected growth rate of cash flows for the years over and above the considered period.

There are two methods for calculating the terminal value – 

• Exit Multiple Method

In this method, a financial metric of a company (like EBITDA) is multiplied by a trading multiple (for e.g. Terminal value = EBITDA x 10).

• Perpetuity Method

Terminal value = [FCWnx (1 + g)] / (WACC – g).Here, FCF is free cash flow and ‘g’ is the perpetual growth rate of FCF.  

Benefits of the Discounted Cash Flow Methods

• One of the most significant benefits of DCF is that it could be applied to a wide range of firms, projects, and other investments as long as the future cash flows can be forecasted.
  
  
• Furthermore, DCF informs the intrinsic value of an investment, which represents the investment's necessary assumptions and attributes. As a result, there is no need to seek out counterparts for comparison.
  
  
• Investors can also build many scenarios and tweak the predicted cash flows for each scenario to see how their returns change under various conditions.